Boeing 787-10 Options

[Im tha king]

http://81.144.183.107/Articles/2006/01/04/...derivative.html

Boeing has finally acknowledged increased interest in the proposed stretched 787-10 and says it will “probably happen”.

The double-stretch of the baseline 787-8, first revealed by Flight International (20-26 September, 2005), is provisionally expected to seat up to 300 passengers in a tri-class layout, “plus or minus 10 or so”, says 787 vice-president and general manager Mike Bair, who describes the development as a “relatively modest investment”.

Bair also acknowledges the driving force behind the -10, which would compete head-on with the Airbus A350-900, comes from Dubai-based Emirates Airlines. “You’ve got to give credit to Emirates. They’ve been all over us to make us understand this, and its becoming fairly obvious that this was something that probably will happen,” he adds. At an estimated 68m (223ft) in length, the 787-10 is sketched out to be around 6m longer than the 787-9, and would compete with Boeing’s own 777-200ER.

Up until now this has made Boeing reluctant to seriously consider the -10, but the company now appears to be changing its mind given Emirates’ insistence, growing interest from other carriers such as Qantas, and the imminent danger of the A350-900. Although Bair says it “could not really happen with an entry into service before 2012, but some time after that”, the overall message is the -10 is now an accepted derivative option.

As for cannibalising the 777 market, Bair says: “It is better for us to step on [the 777] than someone else. If you can do a product that the market is clamouring for you’d be silly to ignore it.”

Boeing is also increasing its market forecast for the medium twin sector from 3,300-3,500 to around 4,000 aircraft over the next 20 years.

“We’ll get 50% of that at least, and if you do the maths, and see what the running average is, you can see what the rate has to be –and we have to do better than that to protect the peaks.”

To meet the market demand, Boeing has found slots for a further 16 aircraft at the end of 2009, which would bring deliveries to 112 aircraft for the first two years of production.

That's perfect, it can replace Boeing's 777-200/ER, however, it can't compete against the 777-200LR, because of the range. However, I don't think the orders will pick up, so I believe it won't succeed in the market, and the only customer is Emirates Airways, so I wouldn't expect this variant.

Best Regards
Smile

[USAirways737]

Dang Boeing Come on see how the orignial 787 does first then think about the stretch stop getting your hopes up already.... :cry:

USAirways737

[Ben Jones]

That's perfect, it can replace Boeing's 777-200/ER, however, it can't compete against the 777-200LR, because of the range. However, I don't think the orders will pick up, so I believe it won't succeed in the market, and the only customer is Emirates Airways, so I wouldn't expect this variant.

Emirates wants 50 of them, QANTAS in it's 787 order said that a -10 looked very promising for future growth once it's needs outgrow the -8 and -9, the -10 is also at the core of discussion at Singapore Airlines, it has one of the largest 772ER fleets in the world and it being an airline always on the quest for a young fleet will need a replacement, a same capacity 787 would be ideal, and now with the boss of BCA saying it's highly possible, and 787 program manager saying it will happen thanks to a modest amount of required investment, means all signs are pointing to it happening. Once GE and RR commit to a timeframe for capable engines, expect a 787-10 launch shortly after.

Lots of 772ER are in service, they will all eventually need replacement, will airlines order more, unlikely, will they replace them with the 772LR, unlikely, apart from being very expensive ($230m) it isn't enough of a revolution to qualifly as a being long term replacement... If your replacing 50+ aircraft, you want to get your moneysworth...

Boeing has two options, sit back and watch the A350-900 eat away at the 772ER market, likely picking up all new orders and more often than not scoring on the replacements too, OR, Boeing can act, offer a new aircraft of their own in the same market segment and retain what they have... that being a hold on the market, enter the 787-10.

The -200LR is in a field of it's own in terms of payload, not to mention it's the freighter platform, the -300ER can't be touched, look how many 772ER have been sold in recent years compared with the others, it's only a handful, if nothing else, that warrants a 787-10.

[Im tha king]

That's perfect, it can replace Boeing's 777-200/ER, however, it can't compete against the 777-200LR, because of the range. However, I don't think the orders will pick up, so I believe it won't succeed in the market, and the only customer is Emirates Airways, so I wouldn't expect this variant.

Emirates wants 50 of them, QANTAS in it's 787 order said that a -10 looked very promising for future growth once it's needs outgrow the -8 and -9, the -10 is also at the core of discussion at Singapore Airlines, it has one of the largest 772ER fleets in the world and it being an airline always on the quest for a young fleet will need a replacement, a same capacity 787 would be ideal, and now with the boss of BCA saying it's highly possible, and 787 program manager saying it will happen thanks to a modest amount of required investment, means all signs are pointing to it happening. Once GE and RR commit to a timeframe for capable engines, expect a 787-10 launch shortly after.

Lots of 772ER are in service, they will all eventually need replacement, will airlines order more, unlikely, will they replace them with the 772LR, unlikely, apart from being very expensive ($230m) it isn't enough of a revolution to qualifly as a being long term replacement... If your replacing 50+ aircraft, you want to get your moneysworth...

Boeing has two options, sit back and watch the A350-900 eat away at the 772ER market, likely picking up all new orders and more often than not scoring on the replacements too, OR, Boeing can act, offer a new aircraft of their own in the same market segment and retain what they have... that being a hold on the market, enter the 787-10.

The -200LR is in a field of it's own in terms of payload, not to mention it's the freighter platform, the -300ER can't be touched, look how many 772ER have been sold in recent years compared with the others, it's only a handful, if nothing else, that warrants a 787-10.

the -8 and -9, the -10 is also at the core of discussion at Singapore Airlines
Err....I wish I could show you a picture of how long the 787-10X is going to be with Boeing 787-8/9.

Just months ago, Boeing ignored the idea of a new 787 stretch, now they are suggesting it as a replacement for Singapore's 777-200ER? The last 777-200 was delivered in June of 2004, which is pretty early, considering Singapore's first Boeing 777-200.
Hmmm...I see you've been looking at my post on why Singapore won't buy Airbus, right?
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Edit: I found the picture:
http://www.flightinternational.com/Article...on+787-10X.html

It also says:
Emirates pushes Boeing on 787-10X
Emirates is stepping up pressure on Boeing to firm up plans to build a larger, 300-seat derivative of the 787 to replace the 777-200ER.

The Dubai-based carrier has been evaluating the 787 along with the A350 with a view to placing a large order, but has repeatedly stated that the current Boeing offering is too small for its needs. The manufacturer has until recently baulked at requests to create a larger 787 derivative, beyond the 260-seat -9, because it would compete with its own 300-seat 777-200ER.

However, as a result of pressure from Emirates and others, as well as the emergence of the 300-seat Airbus A350-900, Boeing is known to be studying a further stretch, designated the “787-10X”, which would seat at least 290 passengers and, at 68m (223ft), be around 6m longer than the 787-9 (Flight International, 20-26 September).

“We’ve told Boeing what Emirates would like, to see what they could do with a 787 stretch and they’ve responded positively,” says airline president Tim Clark. “Now they’ve brought something of interest to us…I don’t know where that will take us,” he says, adding: “They’re working with us and, I dare say, a lot of the others.”

Emirates has nine 777-200/200ERs in service, but Clark believes that the arrival of the A350-900 in 2010 will spell the end for the variant: “They will eat [the 777-200ER] with that aircraft,” he says, adding that he expects the emergence of the new generation twinjets will force Boeing to eventually “cancel” the 777-200ER.

Despite his pessimism about the 777-200ER, Clark says that Emirates is “seriously looking at” the ultra-long-range General Electric GE90-powered -200LR version, which has “unbeatable range and performance”. This aircraft and the incumbent A340-500 are being evaluated as the airline looks to expand its ultra-long-range fleet.

Boeing says: “We are studying larger versions of the 787, but no decisions have been made. We are working with the market to determine the best family solution.”

Best Regards,
Airbus fersho

[USAirways737]

That's perfect, it can replace Boeing's 777-200/ER, however, it can't compete against the 777-200LR, because of the range. However, I don't think the orders will pick up, so I believe it won't succeed in the market, and the only customer is Emirates Airways, so I wouldn't expect this variant.

Emirates wants 50 of them, QANTAS in it's 787 order said that a -10 looked very promising for future growth once it's needs outgrow the -8 and -9, the -10 is also at the core of discussion at Singapore Airlines, it has one of the largest 772ER fleets in the world and it being an airline always on the quest for a young fleet will need a replacement, a same capacity 787 would be ideal, and now with the boss of BCA saying it's highly possible, and 787 program manager saying it will happen thanks to a modest amount of required investment, means all signs are pointing to it happening. Once GE and RR commit to a timeframe for capable engines, expect a 787-10 launch shortly after.

Lots of 772ER are in service, they will all eventually need replacement, will airlines order more, unlikely, will they replace them with the 772LR, unlikely, apart from being very expensive ($230m) it isn't enough of a revolution to qualifly as a being long term replacement... If your replacing 50+ aircraft, you want to get your moneysworth...

Boeing has two options, sit back and watch the A350-900 eat away at the 772ER market, likely picking up all new orders and more often than not scoring on the replacements too, OR, Boeing can act, offer a new aircraft of their own in the same market segment and retain what they have... that being a hold on the market, enter the 787-10.

The -200LR is in a field of it's own in terms of payload, not to mention it's the freighter platform, the -300ER can't be touched, look how many 772ER have been sold in recent years compared with the others, it's only a handful, if nothing else, that warrants a 787-10.

the -8 and -9, the -10 is also at the core of discussion at Singapore Airlines
Err....I wish I could show you a picture of how long the 787-10X is going to be with Boeing 787-8/9.

Just months ago, Boeing ignored the idea of a new 787 stretch, now they are suggesting it as a replacement for Singapore's 777-200ER? The last 777-200 was delivered in June of 2004, which is pretty early, considering Singapore's first Boeing 777-200.
Hmmm...I see you've been looking at my post on why Singapore won't buy Airbus, right?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Edit: I found the picture:
http://www.flightinternational.com/Article...on+787-10X.html

It also says:
Emirates pushes Boeing on 787-10X
Emirates is stepping up pressure on Boeing to firm up plans to build a larger, 300-seat derivative of the 787 to replace the 777-200ER.

The Dubai-based carrier has been evaluating the 787 along with the A350 with a view to placing a large order, but has repeatedly stated that the current Boeing offering is too small for its needs. The manufacturer has until recently baulked at requests to create a larger 787 derivative, beyond the 260-seat -9, because it would compete with its own 300-seat 777-200ER.

However, as a result of pressure from Emirates and others, as well as the emergence of the 300-seat Airbus A350-900, Boeing is known to be studying a further stretch, designated the “787-10X”, which would seat at least 290 passengers and, at 68m (223ft), be around 6m longer than the 787-9 (Flight International, 20-26 September).

“We’ve told Boeing what Emirates would like, to see what they could do with a 787 stretch and they’ve responded positively,” says airline president Tim Clark. “Now they’ve brought something of interest to us…I don’t know where that will take us,” he says, adding: “They’re working with us and, I dare say, a lot of the others.”

Emirates has nine 777-200/200ERs in service, but Clark believes that the arrival of the A350-900 in 2010 will spell the end for the variant: “They will eat [the 777-200ER] with that aircraft,” he says, adding that he expects the emergence of the new generation twinjets will force Boeing to eventually “cancel” the 777-200ER.

Despite his pessimism about the 777-200ER, Clark says that Emirates is “seriously looking at” the ultra-long-range General Electric GE90-powered -200LR version, which has “unbeatable range and performance”. This aircraft and the incumbent A340-500 are being evaluated as the airline looks to expand its ultra-long-range fleet.

Boeing says: “We are studying larger versions of the 787, but no decisions have been made. We are working with the market to determine the best family solution.”

Best Regards,
Airbus fersho

Now now your majesty calm down he has a point.

[Ben Jones]

the -8 and -9, the -10 is also at the core of discussion at Singapore Airlines
Err....I wish I could show you a picture of how long the 787-10X is going to be with Boeing 787-8/9.

Just months ago, Boeing ignored the idea of a new 787 stretch, now they are suggesting it as a replacement for Singapore's 777-200ER? The last 777-200 was delivered in June of 2004, which is pretty early, considering Singapore's first Boeing 777-200.
Hmmm...I see you've been looking at my post on why Singapore won't buy Airbus, right?

No, I didn't read your Airbus post.

As for SIA and the 772ER, yes the last one was delivered in 2004, however the first was delivered in 1999, the average age of the subfleet being a modest 4.6yr. SIA by their own admission want to maintain a young fleet, the 744 fleet is now averaging 10 and they are actively being replaced, most have gone and when the 773ER's start to arrive even more will go. By the point a hyperthetical 787-10 enters service in 2012, guess what the average age of the 772ER fleet will be, 10yrs, by current SIA standards, they would be by that point finding their way onto the used market.

This is what Mike Bair (787 Program Manager) said about a 787-10 in late December,

It's fairly obvious to us that it's very doable with modest investment," 787 Program VP and GM Mike Bair said yesterday in a conference call. "It's clearly an airplane we see a marketplace for, obviously being spurred on by Emirates, which is very interested in the airplane."

Boeing agreed to the higher-weight version of the 787 in late September (ATWOnline Oct. 3) and Emirates held off committing to the A350-9 while trying to convince the US manufacturer to build the 787-10. Emirates President Tim Clark told ATWOnline at the A380 Reveal nearly a year ago that "we have told Boeing we want [the 787-10]."

The additional model in the 787 family also will help Boeing in its attempt to secure orders from Singapore Airlines, British Airways and Lufthansa. Bair said the dash 10 likely will not be ready before 2012. SIA is expected to be the next major carrier to announce its intentions, likely in late January, while Emirates could be close behind, possibly at February's Singapore Air Show.

And he's honest about the fact that such an aircraft would overthrow the 772ER,

Bair said the dash 10 could have "about 300 seats, plus or minus 10 or so" and that its overlap with the 777-200ER is not a huge concern. "Better for us to step on it than somebody else. If you can do a product the market is clamoring for, you'd be silly to deny it," he said.

More than anything, he's acknowledging there that if they don't sort things out themselves, then the A350-900 will do it for them.

[mnztr]

Even with the 787-10, with the backlog Boeing has for 787, anyone ordering a 787 of any kind today will not be able to take delivery until 2012, unless they buy delivery slots from other airlines. Boeing is a victim of it's own success here. Right now production is planned to be around 100 planes/year but they are looking to increase that. There is big risk in increasing priduction though, and this is already a very high risk project.